Figures released recently by the General Register of Scotland highlighted a situation where, in the 25 years from 2012 – 2037, the total population of Scotland is pr0jected to rise from 5.31 million to 5.78 million; and continuing to rise into the future.
However, this rising population is also projected to be a markedly ageing one. Scotland’s problems here centre heavily on the west coast.
The figures show a continuous strip of west coast local authority areas under particular threat from significant depopulation - from Dumfries and Galloway, to South Ayrshire, to North Ayrshire, to Inverclyde, to West and East Dunbartonshire and to Argyll and Bute and the Western Isles.
Of the constituent areas in this strip, another continuum – North Ayrshire, Inverclyde, West and East Dunbartonshire and Argyll and Bute – are projected to experience decreases from both migration and natural change – meaning a population shrinking through deaths and outward migration – and progressively ageing.
Scotland and its government face a situation where the more prosperous east coast, whose populations in Aberdeen , Edinburgh and part of the Lothians will rise most strongly, will have to carry the increasing economic burden of the west coast.
The country:
- either accepts that the west coast and islands will be a permanent and increasingly heavyweight passenger;
- or the government creates an economic development strategy – which would have to be kick started by very substantial investment in strategic infrastructural development – for the west coast and involving it with the development in the rest of the country.
The choice is a stark one. The lack of evidence of any developing strategic response would indicate that the Scottish Government has thrown its hands up in the face of a challenge too great for them to cope with.
Argyll positon raised in Scottish Parliament today
The issue, in respect of Argyll, was raised in the Scottish Parliament today by Jamie McGrigor, Highlands & Islands Conservative MSP.
He challenged the Scottish Government on the action it is taking to reverse projected population decline in Argyll & Bute, putting a question at Question Time in the Scottish Parliament to highlight his concerns.
The recently published data, mentioned above, from the National Records of Scotland, predicted Argyll & Bute’s population will fall by 13.5% by 2037, the second largest projected decline in the whole of Scotland; and with the working age population predicted to fall by almost 22%.
Jamie McGrigor emphasised that increased economic growth was vital to reversing this decline.
Responding to the MSP’s question for the Scottish Government, the Cabinet Secretary for Finance John Swinney said he had sympathy for the points raised. He also said that improving digital connectivity was an ongoing priority for the Scottish Government and confirmed that he would be participating in Argyll & Bute Council’s rescheduled population summit later this year.
Commenting afterwards Jamie McGrigor said: ‘I share the concerns of many in Argyll & Bute about its projected depopulation which risks the critical mass we need to maintain important public services and decreases our local tax base.
‘As I emphasised in Parliament today, attracting new jobs and investment to Argyll & Bute is key to reversing this decline and this means having the best possible infrastructure in terms of transport links and broadband access. Previous closures of the A83 trunk road have been unhelpful for the image of this area and that is why I have campaigned consistently for long term solutions to be put in place to ensure that road is not subject to closures.
Reliable broadband provision is also critically important and too many communities in rural Argyll & Bute, such as those in south and mid Kintyre who have recently contacted me on the subject, don’t have the reliable broadband that is so important for businesses, including tourism businesses.
‘I will continue to press Ministers on these matters at every available opportunity as reversing population decline is one of the very biggest challenges facing the Argyll & Bute area.’